US intelligence assessments suggest Russian President Vladimir Putin could attempt to test NATO’s unity and commitment to collective defence by launching a limited attack against a member state within the next several years, according to people familiar with the assessments.
The scenarios outlined in the intelligence reports reportedly range from cyberattacks and other forms of hybrid warfare to a small-scale military incursion. Such actions could be designed to challenge NATO’s response without immediately triggering a broader conflict.
Under Article 5 of the NATO treaty, an armed attack against one member is considered an attack against the alliance as a whole. However, the assessments suggest Russia could seek to exploit uncertainty over the scale or nature of an incident to test how far NATO members would go in responding collectively.
The timing and form of any potential escalation remain uncertain. One scenario highlighted by people familiar with the assessments involves Russia targeting the Baltic states or Poland, although there is no indication that a decision to launch such an attack has been made.
The Wall Street Journal first reported on the intelligence assessments.
NATO has declined to comment on classified intelligence but stressed that it routinely prepares for a wide range of potential threats.
“NATO is watching and we are ready to deter and defend as necessary,” a senior NATO military spokesperson said, underlining the alliance’s continued focus on deterrence.
Growing Concerns Across Europe
The assessments come amid several recent incidents involving suspected or confirmed Russian activity near NATO territory.
In May, a drone carrying explosives struck an apartment building in Romania during a Russian attack on a nearby Ukrainian port, injuring two people. In September last year, NATO fighter jets intercepted Russian drones that entered Polish airspace during a wider assault on Ukraine.
A further incident in Germany has heightened concerns. An explosive-laden drone discovered at an airport was assessed by the United States to have belonged to a Russian intelligence service, according to a US defense official cited by CNN. German authorities have indicated that the incident represents a new security challenge, while investigations into possible foreign involvement continue.
Pressure on Western Defences
The intelligence assessments also come as Western governments face concerns about ammunition and missile-interceptor stockpiles following years of military support for Ukraine and the recent conflict involving Iran.
US inventories of some critical air-defense interceptors have reportedly declined significantly, raising questions about the ability of Western militaries to respond simultaneously to multiple crises.
At the same time, Russian long-range attacks against Ukraine have intensified. The United Nations has reported a substantial increase in civilian casualties from such attacks during the first half of the year compared with the same period last year.
The combination of Russia’s continued military campaign, pressure on Western weapons stocks and uncertainty surrounding the future of the Ukraine conflict is complicating defence planning in Washington and European capitals.
A Wider Strategic Challenge
US and European officials are also concerned that Putin could consider testing NATO if diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine fail to produce an outcome acceptable to Moscow.
Western sanctions have placed significant pressure on Russia’s economy, but they have not persuaded the Kremlin to end its military campaign.
For NATO, the challenge extends beyond preparing for a conventional attack. Cyber operations, sabotage, drone incidents and other forms of hybrid warfare could allow Moscow to probe the alliance while creating uncertainty over how and when Article 5 should be invoked.
The latest intelligence assessments do not establish that Russia intends to attack NATO. Instead, they underscore growing concern within Western security circles that Moscow could seek to exploit divisions or test the alliance’s political resolve.
With the war in Ukraine continuing and diplomatic efforts facing significant obstacles, NATO is likely to remain focused on strengthening deterrence while preparing for a broader range of potential confrontations with Russia.